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Monday, July 14, 2008

Current Sales Numbers for Seattle's Neighborhoods

As Barron's just stated in a July 14, 2008 article, could we be at the bottom or close to the bottom in our housing downturn?

In this new world of Blogging and the Internet we come across many different things everyday. We see and hear all the troubling news about how bad the Seattle Real Estate Market is and how bad the National economy is, and today we even read someone saying that he thought we are in a full fledged depression. As Dave Neihaus would say "My Oh My" where are these people coming from. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and there have always been the doom sayers out there but lets look at some facts here about the Seattle Real Estate Market.

We recently received a sales analysis from one of the Title Companies we work with here in Seattle and the following numbers are very interesting. These are resale numbers for homes in different locations and neighborhoods around and in Seattle. These are sales figures from May of 2007 through May of 2008

Area......................# of Sales YTD......................................Average Price YTD
...............................2008.........2007.....%Change......2008..............2007........%Change


Ballard.......................231..........316.......-27%.........$518,242.......$525,907......-1%
Bellevue....................376..........617.......-39%.........$900,769.......$931,086......-3%
Federal Way.............227..........361.......-37%.........$320,164........$333,990.....-4%
Green Lake..............450..........647.......-30%.........$630,758........$601,366......+5%
Issaquah...................181...........226.......-20%........$587,158.......$632,334......-7%
Kent...........................400..........647.......-38%.........$330,833.......$363,762......-9%
Magnolia....................180..........264.......-32%.........$821,126.......$804,701......+2%
Mt Baker....................249..........409.......-39%.........$839,440.......$751,435....+12%
Snoqualmie................116..........164.......-29%.........$477,729.......$504,367.....-5%
Renton.......................445..........695.......-36%.........$405,149........$447,133......-9%
Vashon Island.............45...........54.........-17%........$464,354........$491,971.....-6%

Interesting numbers aren't they? While you have to be careful about any statistics you put together or read as they can be slanted or spun in various ways, we believe while it may still be a bit early to tell, but we could be close to the bottom. Even so, we look at our market in Seattle as having huge potentials for buyers right now. There has never been so much inventory and prices are soft. But as you can se from the number above, while all the areas are experiencing a slow down in number of sales, prices have dropped in some areas, stayed pretty much the same in others, and have risen in others.

The Seattle Real Estate Market holds some really good opportunities at this time for the smart buyer. Over the last couple of years for example, there have been a very large number of Town Homes built in close-in neighborhoods. Some of these Town Homes are in good locations and some are not, but what they all have in common is that you now have a very motivated seller and good inventories to choose from. The same is true for many condo buildings so there are some very good deals to be had, but you have to understand pricing in this market and know how to get the best property at the best price. There are great opportunities but you have know what you are doing. And because of the traffic and now the cost of fuel, the close in neighborhoods will experience even more demand over the next several years.

And now because of gas prices and little to no possibility that they will be going down any time soon, will that "drive until you can afford what you want in a house" mentality be gone soon? There will be increasing pressure for those homes in close-in neighborhoods. And as you see by the above numbers those areas prices haven't been effected very much during this slow down as it is. But there are really good homes in these neighborhood that will sell for much less than they should over the next several months. This is a great time to buy in Seattle, we are convinced of that, but you have to buy smart, you have to know the market and the city. Today there are 88 Active Listing on Magnolia and Queen Anne between $600,000 and $800,000. Last year at this time there were maybe 40. What we have always found is that about 2 out of every 20 Listings are really good homes to buy. Today we know of that 88 homes Listed that there are 12 excellent homes to buy at about a 10% saving over last years prices. Now, we don't recommend that you buy home today if you plan on selling it again in two years, but if you are going to be in a home at least 5 years, this may be the best time to buy that we have has in almost 20 years.

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